With the release of the Wii U and 3DS Super Smash Bros. games fast approaching, fans continue to speculate about which additional characters Nintendo will confirm for the mash-up fighting series's latest installment. The developers have already rounded out the cast with celebrated gaming icons like Mega Man, Little Mac and Pac-Man. The Wii Fit Trainer is also in the game now, because why not? All kidding aside, each new character appears to bring intriguing new attributes to the roster.
NOTE: This article was originally published at GenGAME on July 13, 2014. It went up before the announcement that confirmed Captain Falcon as a playable character in Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS/Wii U.
Not all of these brand-new characters have received a warm welcome from the Smash community, however. After all, each additional fighter introduced takes up a spot on the roster that could go to a different fan favorite. Debating the merits of new characters can become especially touchy when established fighters remain unannounced. So far, the developers have left Captain Falcon's future in the series up in the air, as Caleb Lindquist pointed out in a recent GenGAME editorial. If the master of the Falcon Punch could potentially get axed from the cast, what other beloved characters could receive a pink slip from Nintendo?
In order to answer such a loaded question, it helps to look at what characters the series has dropped in the past. To start out, Super Smash Bros. Melee greatly expanded the series's cast while keeping every member of the original N64 team. The series has always retained the twelve original Smash combatants, and I don't think we need to worry about Captain Falcon, Ness or Jigglypuff getting cut now. Leaving fans in the dark about the return of these celebrated characters might cause unneeded anxiety, but hyping new characters over recurring ones makes sense. They drum up more excitement. That, however, doesn't mean Nintendo will neglect characters from their classic properties. Despite their diminished relevance, F-Zero and Earthbound continue to maintain nostalgic followings, making the return of their star heroes all the more likely. Jigglypuff also probably has enough staying power to appear once again.
Four of the new fighters introduced in Melee, however, were left out of Super Smash Bros. Brawl when the series made the jump to the Wii. I can't claim that I know why Nintendo dropped them, but I think the reasons line up neatly into two overlapping camps. Dr. Mario, Pichu and Roy each closely mimicked the moves of more prominent characters, making their inclusion in the next game less appealing. Mewtwo and Pichu, meanwhile, were explicitly tied to Nintendo's marketing at the time. They included Pichu to promote Pokémon Gold and Pokémon Silver, and likely added MewTwo due to the popularity he gained after the first Pokémon movie.
For the most part, we can chalk the removal of all four characters up to marketability. They no longer represented the face of Nintendo's popular franchises, and largely lacked the novelty and historic notoriety to warrant inclusion. At the same time, the characters who replaced them, namely Lucario for Mewtwo and Ike for Roy, better reflected the franchises they represented at the time. The developers even made Kid Link more contemporary by transforming him into into Toon Link.
If we carry the same criteria over to the cast of Brawl, not as many easy cuts stand out. Solid Snake is the only obvious contender for removal. His appearance in the last game felt more like a gimmick than a natural expansion of the roster. Some also say his commando fighting style didn't translate well into the Super Smash Bros. formula. I disagree, but he still felt like the odd one out standing alongside the rest of the Brawl lineup. I wouldn't bet on seeing him join the cast again this time around. Besides him, R.O.B. looks like another possible cut. He was a goofy character, included as a callback to an unimportant NES peripheral. His unique set of moves and fun design work in his favor, however, so I'd put his return at moderately likely. Meta Knight and Wario will also likely return. Meta Knight gives the popular Kirby series extra representation and brings a stylish set of attacks to the game. Wario's obnoxious antics, meanwhile, quickly made him a popular fighter -someone Nintendo won't cast aside lightly.
I expect most of the character who originally debuted in Melee and later appeared in Brawl to make the cut again. Most of them are linked to important parts of Nintendo's gaming canon. Mr. Game & Watch, for starters, represents an early part of the company's retro heritage, and has a distinct set of attacks as a bonus. I'd also bank on seeing the Ice Climbers again. I think their charm stands the test of time, unlike their long-forgotten game. Their teamwork shtick also brings a fun concept to the table. Ganondorf will no doubt show up as the most recognizable villain in Nintendo's iconic Zelda series and Falco helps give the classic Star Fox franchise adequate representation.
With that said, I wouldn't mind seeing these last two characters receive updated moves to differentiate them more from Captain Falcon and Fox. Clones, two or more characters with nearly identical moves, have plagued the series since the beginning, and Nintendo seems to be moving in a direction to phase them out. Brawl cut out a number of clones who appeared in Melee and tweaked most of the returning ones to differentiate them. If Nintendo continues the de-cloning process with the Wii U and 3DS games, removing Lucas seems like the most obvious choice to make. He doesn't offer much that Ness doesn't already bring to the table. Wolf could also end up getting cut. Although his attacks each have a unique spin on them, he still shares several superficial similarities to the other Star Fox characters. I would still rate his return as more likely than not. Star Fox deserves three representatives, and it helps to include a villain alongside the two heroes.
Nintendo seems intent on removing character transformations from the next Super Smash Bros. lineup. We've already seen Charizard introduced as an individual fighting, all but guaranteeing that the Pokémon Trainer won't return. Squirtle and Ivysaur have't been explicitly cut yet, but their chances of returning seem modest at best. Fans already complain about the overabundance of Pokémon in the game, so they might not find an especially enthusiastic welcome. I'd love to see them return, but I'm not counting on it.
In case my speculation here was hard for anyone to follow, the list below represents my personal ranking of the likelihood of each character returning:
Captain Falcon - 95%
Ness - 95%
Ganondorf - 95%
Wario - 90%
Jigglypuff - 90%
Ice Climbers - 85 %
Mr. Game & Watch - 85%
Meta Knight - 85%
Falco - 85%
Wolf - 80%
R.O.B - 70%
Lucas - 45%
Squirtle - 40%
Ivysaur - 40%
Solid Snake - 30%
At its core, Super Smash Bros. is a celebration of Nintendo history, and beloved gaming icons in general. But history is always moving forward, and Smash fans will have to come to terms with the loss of some characters from the previous game's roster. Where new characters come into the picture, old ones will no doubt have to step aside. Over the years, the franchise has evolved with the times as Nintendo itself has evolved. Not everyone will agree with the direction it takes in either case. In the end, however, the game's lineup will do its best to bring Nintendo fans together.
Parker Lemke writes for the gaming news site GenGAME.